A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
